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The historic Ashes series may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also witness the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the squad was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Ageing Team Interest Builds

For two or three years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling unit. It is unusual to have almost every player in a Test side being over 30, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test squad boasting a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the core four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any side knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a batch of simultaneous retirements, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a process that would indeed be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, transition is upon them, imposed on this Australian squad in the span of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only sit out the opening match, was the team management assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the balance experiences a far greater shift with two players missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland handling the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Tests entering the attack after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

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Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what further injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after that match, given how tricky stress injuries can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of going down early in series and a history of minor injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Future Unclear

The back half of the contest may witness the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition setting in much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a great day-night Brisbane option, but after that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this format is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that change a-coming, coming around the bend, and the English team ain’t seen the success since they don’t know when.